Finale dari Victor Niederhoffer

Tulisan di bawah ini adalah dari Victor Niederhoffer, dalam bukunya yang sangat saya rekomendasikan: “The education of a speculator”. Mari kita renungkan dalam-dalam.

Take account of ecology. Where does the other side live? What does he eat? Does he respond best to slow or fast lures? Always consider the rhythms. Try to synchronize your activities with how fast or slow the currents are moving.

Everything is hooked together. To get good results, pay attention to language, science, economics, literature, religion, and art. Remember Hamlet, “A man may fish with the worm that hath eat of a king and eat of the fish that hath fed of that worm.

If you must know how good you are, enter a contest or tournament, but remember that completely different techniques are appropriate here from those that win in the normal day-to-day fray. The winner of a contest has nothing to lose and therefore takes much more risk than would be appropriate for you of I even to consider in the usual course of events.

Above all, be a contrarian. Once you hit a winner you’re very unlikely to find a winner in that same place. The best fish swim deep and all fish are not caught with the same flies.

Everything is affected by the weather. When the moon is full the easiest pickings are often nearest at hand. The wind is your friend but often the direction of the wind changes the play and the responses of the prey.

The weakest prey are the easiest to catch. When you see red on the battlefield, prepare to reel in the biggest winners.

Stay calm. Keep your emotions in check. A loud voice can upset your concentration and give away your position. The time for exhilaration is after you’ve bagged the winner and you’ve gone home to reflect on what you did right or wrong. Adapt a scientific approach. Keep records of what’s working and what’s not. Once you analyze the record you will be able to see what changes have the best likelihood of success. Especially if you’re doing badly, change something. Try another track — change your bait. But be humble enough to know that there are many others better than you at the game and try to learn from these legends. Many of the greats offer seminars for “reasonable” fees and are happy to share their wisdom with you.

The cycles are always changing. Winning techniques for the morning are completely different from those at noon or the close.”

Bagian yang digarisbawahi adalah bagian yang, pada saat ini, saya pikir penting.

Pos ini dipublikasikan di FILOSOFI INVEST.. Tandai permalink.

6 Balasan ke Finale dari Victor Niederhoffer

  1. edratna berkata:

    Wahh saya nggak termasuk speculator…tapi masih ada investasi di saham. Dan saya yakin, suatu ketika akan membaik, karena saya tahu fundamental nya kuat…

    Dan bukankah dalam setiap investasi selalu ada peluang untung atau rugi…jika harga masih belum bagus ya di hold aja dulu….

  2. ihedge berkata:

    Hehe… kalau kita bilang, strategi ibu itu.. Invest short term. .if not successful, then convert to long term.. 😀

    Strategi itu sebenarnya tidak selalu produktif.

  3. edratna berkata:

    Hehehe…betul, karena sahamnya juga saham MSOP….dan rasanya kalau dilepas semua nggak tega, karena saya banyak dibesarkan Bank tsb…Nggak realistis ya.

  4. Risyadmum berkata:

    “Above all, be a contrarian. Once you hit a winner you’re very unlikely to find a winner in that same place. The best fish swim deep and all fish are not caught with the same flies”

    Azas pendulum di market, market akan membeli yang bagus sehingga harganya akan overvalued dan menjual yang jelek sehingga harganya akan undervalued.

    Bang, investor contrarian mestinya memilih dengan memperhitungkan analisa fundamental yang kuat dan memiliki longterm horizon sehingga tidak akan memilih sekedar yang sedang ‘murah’ kan (cmiiw)

    Kalau spekulator contrarian itu apa sekedar berani ambil resiko masuk, tunggu harga berbalik arah, take profit.

    Jadi rada bingung sama posisi Bogglehead, apa secara otomatis masuk ke investor contrarian kalau kondisi market sedang jelek begini.

  5. ihedge berkata:

    yang Niederhoffer maksud dengan kontrarian, menurut saya, bukan berarti buy low sell high. Tapi, kontrarian dalam arti bahwa setiap opportunities, trading strategies, trading edge itu ada ups and down-nya. Jika opportunities bisa dibayangkan sebagai makanan bagi suatu hewan, maka makanan itu akan berkurang ketika banyak hewan itu datang berduyung2 untuk memakannya. Ketika makanan itu sudah hampir habis, maka sumber makanan lain di tempat lainlah yang lebih bergizi.

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